Here's one way to think about 2018 YTD tech IPOs
The chart below says it all:
Small indications of sanity:
The 2018 cohort finished day one right in line with the historical 5-year levels. This suggests the underwriters allocated these deals to their customary buyers, who behaved in the customary way.
The performance differentiation between High and Low Triton Scores held for the 2018 cohort, both on the first day and thereafter (to June 1, 2018). High Triton Scores traded better than the overall group, which traded better than the Low Triton Scores.
But that’s where the sanity ends:
As of June 1, 2018 Low-Scoring deals from the 2018 cohort have returned more than the comparable High-Scoring deals from the 5-year period.
As of June 1, 2018, returns for High-Scoring 2018 deals as a group were 53% higher than the comparable five-year cohort.
As of June 1, 2018, returns for all of the 2018 deals as a group were 89% higher than the comparable five-year cohort.
As of June 1, 2018, returns for the Low-Scoring 2018 deals as a group were 243% higher than the comparable five-year cohort.
Individual 2018 YTD tech IPOs as of June 1 are here:
Note the disconnect between Score and performance particularly for:
Dropbox (highest Score of 2018 by far, lowest return of the Q1 cohort).
Cardlytics and Pluralsight (bottom decile Scores with returns to date far north of the 5-year cohort)